Hurricane Idalia live updates for Tallahassee, Florida's Big Bend

As now Hurricane Idalia begins to rapidly intensify, westward nudges in the storm's track and models have raised the danger level for Florida's capital city.

While Tallahassee is under a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning, it's neighboring coastal counties face a potentially deadly storm surge.

A westward shift in the model guidance overnight is setting up a possibly unprecedented situation for Tallahassee, the Big Bend and Nature Coast.

Here's the latest.

The National Weather Service - Tallahassee wants people to be paying close attention today.

The storm's current National Hurricane Center forecast track still takes it to the east of the tree-filled capital city, but that could change as models and the track have shifted further west overnight.

Don Van Dyke, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, said a Hurricane Warning could be hoisted for the capital city at the 11 a.m. advisory. That would trigger a Wireless Emergency Alert that would ring out from the phones of residents.

"Hurricane force wind gusts in Tallahassee would be terrible ... Most of the power out, downed trees everywhere," he said. "And that's the really important advisory. That's the last chance to get that out there so people can finalize their preparations."

State-level updates:Hurricane Idalia intensifies; 46 Florida counties under state of emergency

Van Dyke said the storm is an unprecedented threat as there has not been a recorded Category 3 or higher hurricane in Apalachee Bay in the historical record, going back to 1851.

"It is very rare for a major hurricane to be in this part of the northern Gulf," Van Dyke said.

While Tallahassee may have seen the occasional hurricane wind gust in hurricanes Michael, Hermine or Kate, the city has never been tested by a barrage of sustained hurricane force winds above 74 mph.

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On the current track in which Tallahassee is under a Tropical Storm Warning, the city can expect at minimum tropical storm force gusts of 50 to 60 mph and 3 to 6 inches of rain.

"If it goes a little bit to the west it will get much much worse," Van Dyke said.

- William Hatfield